3Q2020 New Haven Milford Metro Ct Real Estate Market Report

Nov 28, 2020 -- The Third Quarter of 2020 delivered a unique summer market due to the  continuing burden of COVID-19  that shutdown our economy beginning March 12, 2020. Although things were relaxed in the summer we are witnessing increased reports of C19 cases for multiple reasons, mostly people refusing to maintain social distance protocols. Sadly, the USA has one of the highest per capita rates of infection in the world in November  2020,  while enjoying some of the greatest access medical and informational technology    

 Connecticut surpassed USA Average National Appreciation Values ending 3Q2020 --

  Connecticut (CT) is currently in 25th position  delivering an impressive (based on previous performance)   one year  appreciation of 7.84% (relative to four quarters ago),  one quarter appreciation of 4.18%,  five year appreciation of 16.35% and total appreciation since 1991 of 89.35%

  The  Connecticut real estate market powered through Summer 2020 with virtual open houses, electronic documents, and social distancing protocols that enabled motivated parties to complete transactions. Remote Socially Secure Technology has rapidly accelerated and reshaped the Metro NYC commuter economy due to the hyper quick forced implementation of social distancing, and , *IMO* has forever changed the definition of work and commuting. 

My Milford New Haven Metro  has seen an increased presence of New York license plates which may support reports of a NYC outbound migration, which has driven up prices in my market with less inventory. We may see people moving remote location out west to capitalize on  short ter, ,migration and lower prices, however my Milford New Haven CT Metro Market will continue to appreciate and retain value based on the multiple vales of our location, location location. Your personal real estate market is hyper local as defined by my PALCompReport (Price Amenities & Location) 

 

2.72% FHFA 30 year fixed rates have continued their exploration of  historic lows  (2020-11-25 2.72%)

 New Haven County 3+ bedroom w/ 2 or 3 baths homes for sale/ month has dropped from 1409 in Jan2019 to 1311 in Jan2020 to 1078 in Oct2020,

 New Haven County 3+ bedroom w/ 2 or 3 baths (price per square foot) has risen from $137/sqft in Jan2019 to $141/sqft in Jan2020 to $148/sqft in Oct2020,

 New Haven County 3+ bedroom w/ 2 or 3 baths Closed Transaction have ranged from from June2017 (3752), to a March 2020 precovid low (3645), the dropping to the June2020 (3459) social distance low then displaying a COVID19 Oct2020  (3842) recovery, the most transactions available in this resource since 2003, which may support my position that Connecticut is undervalued based on our vast resources of location, climate, recreation, art,  bioscience, manufacturing, technology, financial services, education, healthcare and well known quality of life.

 It will be interesting to see if this matrix of less property, more transactions & higher prices are sustained in 2021 with news of a COVID19 vaccine on the horizon.

 The FHFA House 3Q2020 Price Index for my Milford New Haven Metro (All-Transactions Indexes estimated using Sales Prices and Appraisal Data)) value went up  4.67  to 197.01  (a value comparable to 195.05 in 2Q2009).  Remember my Carr Value Shelf identified the range of 173 (4Q2014) to 178.06  (3Q2017)  as a probable range of statistical stability comparable to the 1991-1997 Connecticut value shelf. As a real estate professional, I must say that past performance does not assure future results however housing is a leveraged quality of life acquisition as well as an investment. If you have to pay to live somewhere, I believe it is wise to consider the financial benefits provided by ownership of real property.

 At this point in our history the only people who are technically "underwater in my Metro are ones who purchased after 4Q2004 in the period leading up the great recession, which peaked in 1Q2007.  People who purchased after 2Q2009 now have positive equity in their homes if they stayed the course. Many people who stayed the course were supported with HAMP and HARP programs which addressed the irrational exuberance period no document lending     

          

My market has finally attained the Highly Respectable Inclusion of the Top 20 Metropolitan Areas Ranked by Annual Appreciation !!

 Our New Haven-Milford Metro CT home attained 8th position of the top 100  with one year appreciation of 10.9%,

one quarter appreciation of 7.47% 5 year appreciation of 20.82% and 91.69% appreciation since 1991

 Hartford-East Hartford-Middletown moved out of the bottom 20 with 7.08 annual appreciation,  2.87% one quarter appreciation, 13.25% five year appreciation and 68.39% appreciation since 1991

 Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT  remained in the national  bottom 20, improving to 85 (up from 89 in 2Q2020) of 100 with 5.99  annual appreciation, 2.94% one quarter appreciation, 12.97% five year appreciation and 120.34% appreciation since 1991

 The FHFA House Price Index (FHFA HPI) is a broad economic measure of the movement of single-family house prices in the United States. The production of the FHFA HPI is statutorily mandated (12 U.S.C. 4542) but it began in 1995 with one of FHFA's predecessor agencies, the Office of the Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO).

 A  1Q2014  Residential Purchase of  $100,000  with a  3Q2020 Valuation is Estimated around $126,000  (a 6.5 year appreciation of 26%)  in my "Greater New Haven Milford Ct Metro."   I bet your rent went up a bit since 2014, and you probably spent at least $2000 a month plus plus. That $156,000 (2000x78) is gone with no equity, compared to the leveraged appreciation you might have recognized. This is why I teach people that #HomeOwnershipBuildsWealth and cash out refis are a bad solution for unsecured debt.

 Connecticut and my Milford New Haven Metro remains underappreciated despite our proximity, climate and high quality of life. This unprecedented 2020 Hot Summer COVID-19 market has created new financial opportunity (  lower interest rates and higher sales prices )  and logical challenges, ( home bound school, remote employment, social distance restrictions on businesses)  in a locally lateral market for qualified participants in Connecticut. I am confident our location, climate, quality of life and infrastructure will continue to make Connecticut an excellent place to live in 2021 and beyond. The Connecticut fiscal recovery continues as tax cuts are withheld, allowing the Rainy Day Fund to surpass it's $3.000.000.000 cap, which could allow fiscal conservation and sustainable, long term municipal debt retirement. Connecticut has a history of debt creation to fund tax cuts which has proven to be an ineffective long term management program, as evidenced in other states with potentially bankrupt national municipalities.

 

Since 1996 I am here to help you discern value and quality of life when the time is right for you.  People move because it’s the right time more than anything else. People complete home purchases with higher interest rates in more challenging historical environments than today. Is there anything I can do to help you make a good decision?  I am here to help. Copyright©11/28/2020 All Rights Reserved. My opinions are mine, my facts are authentic, my attention to your success is relentless.   Follow me on twitter @ctrealdavecarr