Thursday, April 11, 2019

Bond investors and David Carr have confidence in Connecticut

These excerpts from the attached 4/18/19  CT. Post article support my confidence in the multiple values of living in Connecticut- David Carr.   “Bond investors overwhelmingly are making a bet on the future of Connecticut, They can read official statements and they have analysts who do that all the time but to be in a room in that setting and to kick the tires and ask questions ... you’re getting a qualitative analysis of what’s happening with the state and the leadership.” Shawn Wooden, State Treasurer said.  Howard Sitzer at CreditSights, said Connecticut is moving slowly in the right direction, and that helped the recent sale. “The ‘debt diet’ Governor Lamont has proposed...may have additionally driven demand for this issue,” David M. Womack, senior vice president at Blaylock Van LLC and a co-manager of the bond issue said “ “It’s still by and large a wealthy state, it’s got good schools and it’s between Boston and New York. ... People aren’t heading for the exits.”  

Sunday, March 10, 2019

An Artistic Value of Home Ownership

Making your shelter a home is an Aesthetic Value of Home Ownership. Take a picture you like, get the stair riser measurements (maybe 12ft x 3ft) have the image blown up to that size, cut it into strips, apply using a smooth wallpaper adhesive, then do clear gloss or plastic to finish, MY experience is your opportunity.

Thursday, March 7, 2019

How Can I help?

I care about your dreams and your future. What do you need most right now? How do you feel about that? How can I help? Let's start the confidential conversation so we can identify opportunities and resources together.

Tuesday, February 26, 2019

David Carr New Haven Milford Ct Metro Value Shelf Report ending 4Q2018

David Carr New Haven Milford Ct Metro Value Shelf Report ending  4Q2018   

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) reported today, February 26, 2019, that Connecticut posted the 2nd smallest annual appreciation at 0.9 percent in home prices between the fourth quarters of 2017 and 2018 while values rose in all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

Multiple factors may be considered when deciding to invest in Connecticut Real Estate in 2019, however lack of relative over-appreciation does not seem to be a primary concern. According to the FHFA HPI Calculator today, a $100,000 New Haven Milford Metro property purchased in 1Q2012 would be worth $112,296 today. 

My home market, New Haven-Milford, CT  placed in 222nd national position with a one year appreciation of  2.08%,  a small decline from position 216 in 3Q2018 when the annual appreciation was reported to be 3.10%   Since 2014,  the “Carr New Haven Milford Metro Value Shelf©”  has maintained and appreciated beyond the original established range of 173-178 based on the  FHFA All-Transactions house price index,  which adds appraisal values from refinance mortgages to the purchase-only data sample. Historical observations are available on my platforms.

Connecticut real estate values in this sample appreciated 7.43% in the past 5 years and over 75% since 1991, yet your target market and property preference may be different, something I am available to investigate with you, using a variety of data tools that target where and what you are most interested in. You may have heard “New is national, but real estate is local,” so choosing the data configuration and unbiased source appropriate for your unique position and goal is essential. In my experience, real estate is hyper local, drilling down to school district and geographical boundaries, affected by a variety of community resources and local factors.

As we consider our Connecticut One Year House Price Appreciation we see Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk up  0.91% and Hartford-East Hartford-Middletown up 0.50%  in the “20 Metropolitan Areas with Lowest Rates of Appreciation” holding national positions 235 and 239 respectively, out of a total 246. 

The top five states in 2018 annual appreciation were: 1) Idaho up11.9%,  Nevada up 11.2%,  Utah up 9.8%,  Georgia up 8.2% and Arizona  up 8.2% while the top five metros were Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, Nevada up  17.63% , Boise City, Idaho  up 16.65%,  Idaho Falls, Idaho up 13.78%, Spokane-Spokane Valley, Washington up 13.08%  and Coeur d'Alene, Idaho  up 12.85%.   This demonstrates a huge appreciation differential for Connecticut, which I propose is undervalued considering deferred appreciation since 2012, our close proximity to New York City, New England, the Long Island Sound Shoreline, our quality of life, recreational resources, schools, health care and a relatively hospitable climate.  It’s important to remember the FHFA House Price index is constructed to reflect the weighted average quarterly price change for the fifty states and Washington, D.C. The weights are the estimated share of one-unit detached housing units in the respective states.

At the peak of Irrational Exuberance in New Haven-Milford,  house price values peaked ending 1Q2007 at 220.41 (with a 1.46 standard error).   We can observe the 2014 bottom of the Great Recession in my Milford New Haven Metro as reflected here in the FHFA All-Transactions Indexes, estimated using sales prices and appraisal data not seasonally adjusted.  The number in parentheses is the standard error.

"New Haven-Milford, CT"             35300    2011       1              181.66   ( 1.22)   4Q2018 Equity Point
"New Haven-Milford, CT"             35300    2011       2              177.88   ( 1.21)
"New Haven-Milford, CT"             35300    2011       3              178.89   ( 1.20)
"New Haven-Milford, CT"             35300    2011       4              179.74   ( 1.18)
"New Haven-Milford, CT"             35300    2012       1              176.96   ( 1.17)
"New Haven-Milford, CT"             35300    2012       2              174.5     ( 1.16)        
"New Haven-Milford, CT"             35300    2012       3              174.76   ( 1.16)
"New Haven-Milford, CT"             35300    2012       4              175.05   ( 1.16)
"New Haven-Milford, CT"             35300    2013       1              174.95   ( 1.17)
"New Haven-Milford, CT"             35300    2013       2              174.67   ( 1.18)
"New Haven-Milford, CT"             35300    2013       3              174.36   ( 1.21)
"New Haven-Milford, CT"             35300    2013       4              173.04   ( 1.29)
"New Haven-Milford, CT"             35300    2014       1              171.51   ( 1.33)   BOTTOM
"New Haven-Milford, CT"             35300    2014       2              171.75   ( 1.28)
"New Haven-Milford, CT"             35300    2014       3              172.44   ( 1.26)
"New Haven-Milford, CT"             35300    2014       4              173.05   ( 1.26)  BEGIN 173-178 SHELF
"New Haven-Milford, CT"             35300    2015       1              175.54   ( 1.29)
"New Haven-Milford, CT"             35300    2015       2              176.04   ( 1.31)
"New Haven-Milford, CT"             35300    2015       3              175.24   ( 1.33)
"New Haven-Milford, CT"             35300    2015       4              175.95   ( 1.37)  BEGIN 2nd Year
"New Haven-Milford, CT"             35300    2016       1              175.31   ( 1.38)
"New Haven-Milford, CT"             35300    2016       2              177.17   ( 1.36)
"New Haven-Milford, CT"             35300    2016       3              178.21   ( 1.31)
"New Haven-Milford, CT"             35300    2016       4              178.24   ( 1.34)  BEGIN 3rd Year
"New Haven-Milford, CT"             35300    2017       1              177.28   ( 1.52)
"New Haven-Milford, CT"             35300    2017       2              178.03   ( 1.44)
"New Haven-Milford, CT"             35300    2017       3              178.69   ( 1.44) 
"New Haven-Milford, CT"             35300    2017       4              181.21   ( 1.47)   BEGIN 4th Year and
"New Haven-Milford, CT"             35300    2018       1              181.09   ( 1.65)    end 173-178 SHELF
"New Haven-Milford, CT"             35300    2018       2              182.76   ( 1.55)
"New Haven-Milford, CT"             35300    2018       3              184.88   ( 1.64)
"New Haven-Milford, CT"             35300    2018       4              184.98   ( 1.82)

As we move ahead or look back, we may notice the velocity with which values evolve. Here we see 12 quarters over 3 years with five points appreciation forming the Carr Value Shelf©. The next 5-point appreciation from179 -184 has been in process about half that time over 5 quarters.  The last tme we saw this demonstration of price stability with delayed appreciation was the seven-year period from 2Q1991, when this index was at 110.78 (0.75) to 4Q1998 when the index rose to 111.38 (0.72).
As a licensed real esate professional since 1997, I find it interesting to consider when there is a point of stability compared to a rising value environment.  It’s unique that real estate is controlled with dedicated shelter money in a leveraged transaction that may have tax benefits, so one can either pay rent or a mortgage.  It seems to me there is a definite amount of inventory in New Haven-Milford, CT that has maintained value since the 181.66 (1.22) equity point established in 1Q2011, and before   3Q2004 when the FHFA HPI was 186.34 (1.21).

Moving ahead, this is a reasonable data set to consider when weighing 30 year interest rates in 5% in a non-inflationary environment. When I wrote #HomeOwnershipBuildsWealth©  an example was presented comparing renting to buying over 30 years. This study concluded in the 31st year the tenant would be signing a new lease while the homeowner who bought the $275,000 property would probably have an asset worth over $550,000 when projecting 100% appreciation over 30 years.  I hope you have found this interesting and helpful. It seems to me that Connecticut is a superior location to New York or New Jersey for a variety of reasons including schools, density and quality of life. I look forward to working together to help you make the right move when the time is right for you. I am proud to be the foundation of your success in real estate since 1996. This work is my own reflection of FHFA public data, presented in the public interest. I am happy to explore any ideas you may have. My work and the referenced data sets are Copyright©2/26/19. All Rights Reserved. Follow me on Twitter @ ctrealdavecarr. See on on YouTube at David Carr Milford New Haven Real Estate.

Tuesday, February 12, 2019

Nine Signs Now is the Right Time to become a Homeowner, By David Carr; CT-REALTOR Est.1996

Nine Signs Now is the Right Time to become a Homeowner, By David Carr;  CT-REALTOR Est.1996
1) You have established a Career and/or Consistent Verifiable Income History.
2) Your Debt to Income Ratio (which is your loan/revolving credit monthly minimums not counting rent) is under 35%.
3) Your credit report demonstrates accountability and responsibility.
4) You have some savings to provide a safety net, or pay closing costs. Some loans allow 100% down with 3-5% added for closing costs (You get an escrow savings account of six months taxes as part of your closing costs). I can show you how to shop Loan Costs, possibly saving thousands of dollars.
5) You like the community you live in and want to make a commitment to have a life here. Living is more than having a place to sleep and store your stuff, it’s about making a place your own, making memories staging the theatre of your life. You will   get to know people are in it for the long haul, committed to making their corner of the world better for themselves, their neighbors and their family.
6) You recognize #HomeOwnershipBuildsWealth. You understand after 30 years of paying rent you will have nothing to show for that money.  Using that same monthly shelter money to leverage a real property purchase is an investment that can deliver the Multiple Values of Home Ownership, and give you something you own, can sell or leverage in the 30th year or before.
7) Your housing market is comparably or undervalued. By discerning a menu of static variables, we can evaluate historical appreciation and comparable market values.
8) You want creative license to live life on your terms, not the next wall or downstairs neighbor’s. As a homeowner you will decide how your home looks and feels.
9) You enjoy learning and trying new things. You new home has a range of systems and elements you can maintain and improve. From painting to floor covering, interior decorating to landscaping, gardening to pet care, you new home will be all yours to learn about, care for, and enjoy. Personally, I have relished the opportunity to become a good tile setter, painter, vegetable farmer, woodworker, plumber, and landscaper. There is a lot to be said for the satisfaction that comes from the successful completion of a home project
Copyright©2019 by David Carr. All Rights reserved.

Saturday, January 12, 2019

Greater New Haven Milford Metro CT Third Quarter 2018 Real Estate Market Report

55 Slides to consider our Third Quarter 2018 Local Real Estate Market. Be an expert in your market by teaming with Dave "The Foundation of Your Success in Real Estate, Here When the Time is Right for You Since 1996(c)"

12/17/18 –   The Milford – New Haven Metro  Carr House Price Value Shelf (FHFA HPI 171-178 since 2Q2012) presented improvement ending September 30,  2018 with an increase of  2.07  to 184.00  (from the 182.92 which ended 2Q2018). Most Single Family properties acquired before 3Q2004 (186.33) and after 1Q2011 (181.66) are worth more today.
Some properties purchased in the final stages of the irrational exuberance may have been mortgaged with creative lending to some underqualified buyers. Some of these have been resolved through default, while others have been refinanced or had loan modifications.

    As we look back on the Irrational Exuberance of house price values,  we see the only property still technically underwater was purchased approaching the 2007 peak after 3Q2004 (186.33),  before 1Q2011 (181.66) and the 2012 low.  Some of these transactions involved "creative, no documentation financing" with multiple loan instruments and ARMs. A wise home buyer recognizes the fixed cost of housing, then seeks to leverage this cost to their unique life/work situation using fixed rate loan products.

My YouTube (David Carr Milford New Haven CT Real Estate Expert) information sources are retrieved from public databases referenced on each slide. While I do not know what the future holds, I believe that living in Connecticut will be a good value for multiple quality of life reasons, as well as proximity to New York City, and the deferred appreciation in comparison to National Indices.  Three of four Connecticut Metros are ranked in the national bottom twenty (224-243)  one year appreciation ending 3Q2018, while only Milford-New Haven has risen from that ranking to 216 in recent months. This is an interesting situation, considering possible overvaluation in the top twenty or more markets as presented today, with New Haven- Milford presenting a 5 year appreciation of only 6.06%.  

I am optimistic about the economic opportunity and quality of life directly supported by Metro North Commuter rail and our Wonderful Shoreline.

Since 1996  am proud to be “ The Foundation of Your Success in real Estate.” I will continue to be “Here when the time is right for you to buy, sell, learn or invest”

              Copyright©12/17/2018 David Carr. All Rights Reserved

Greater New Haven Milford Metro CT Third Quarter Real Estate Market Report 

Wednesday, October 24, 2018

Real Estate Professionals Climate Lobby

Many Real Estate Professionals embrace a Code of Ethics that directs us to remember  “Under all is the land. Upon its wise utilization and widely allocated ownership depend the survival and growth of free institutions and of our civilization. REALTORS® should recognize that the interests of the nation and its citizens require the highest and best use of the land and the widest distribution of land ownership. They require the creation of adequate housing, the building of functioning cities, the development of productive industries and farms, and the preservation of a healthful environment. Such interests impose obligations beyond those of ordinary commerce. They impose grave social responsibility and a patriotic duty to which REALTORS® should dedicate themselves, and for which they should be diligent in preparing themselves. REALTORS®, therefore, are zealous to maintain and improve the standards of their calling and share with their fellow REALTORS® a common responsibility for its integrity and honor.”

How do we honor this obligation to the highest and best use of the land, functioning cities, productive industries, farms, free institutions, and the preservation of a healthful environment? It seems to me that Real Estate Professionals are expected to stand with the environment, advocating conservation, efficiency, and sustainability while opposing activities that will damage our civilization and the livelihood of future generations who will live here.

We, as Real Estate professionals, have created REPAC one of the largest political action groups in the nation.

We, as Real Estate professionals,  have direct knowledge of the environment in which we do business, because we are out there with our clients, inspecting the land.

 We, as Real Estate professionals, have access to the best technology and communication systems because that’s what we do as transactional agents.

We, as Real Estate professionals, care about our communities and the people who live and work here, now and in the future.

We, as Real Estate professionals, believe in doing well by doing good.

Therefore, I propose Real Estate Professionals  support the Real Estate Professionals Climate Lobby,  a developing organization  which will endorse wise use of our land and resources. The Real Estate Professionals Climate Lobby will identify factual, non- partisan solutions to climate change that will provide measurable results in the next 20 years. One solution that Real Estate Professionals can support is a National Carbon Fee and Dividend (CF&D) which would place a predictable, steadily rising price on carbon, with all fees collected, minus transparent administrative costs, returned to households as a monthly energy dividend. In just 20 years, studies show, such a system could reduce carbon emissions to 50% of 1990 levels while adding 2.8 million jobs to the American economy.

Industries must stop damaging the earth and people with harmful chemicals or airborne pollutants. Cities like Norfolk, New York and Miami will not function if they flood. A healthful environment is sustainable in perpetuity, not threatened by environmental catastrophe, chemical contamination or physical collapse. The highest and best use of the land includes conservation and wise use to provide stewardship of these resources for those who will live in the future with knowledge and experience that does not exist in 2018. 

High efficiency conservation and clean energy generation make real property more valuable while creating no barriers to property transfer. A highly efficient, unencumbered solar system, properly adjusted for value at time of sale, can be an asset to an environmentally conscious homebuyer. The cost benefit of efficiency and conservation eliminates the need for mandated improvements.
 Nobody but industry knew lead paint was bad for children in the 1930-1960s. Cigarettes did not have health warnings until 1965, the warning was not conclusive until 1969, and did not specify Lung Cancer, Heart Disease, Emphysema, Carbon Monoxide, Fetal Injury, Premature Birth, and Low Birth Weight until 1984. 

Congress and the EPA did not reduce lead to current levels until 2008 despite over 6,000 scientific studies. Lead was not banned from paint until 1978. The chemical industry rejected scientific evidence on lead in the 1930’s, blaming families for allowing children to eat the paint chips, claiming the children were “sub-normal to start with.”  Lead was pumped into the air through gasoline emissions until 1995. These problems were maintained at the expense of children who would grow up in a knowingly hazardous future.

 When we learn forests are the key to removing carbon, and carbon is causing the oceans to warm and acidify, which increases severe weather, what will the value of a forest then be? Could a forest or river be a more valuable resource than a development? It’s hard to imagine right now, and easier to ignore. We have seen massive forests destroyed to grow food while new technology has multiplied the crop yield efficiency of an acre beyond traditional row farming. Severe weather has made some farms nothing but dustbowls, turning rivers into raging floods, or mud. The jet stream has been increasingly disturbed, changing ocean and wind currents, contributing to severe weather. Will ocean warmth and acidity threaten 70 % of the oxygen in the atmosphere which is manufactured by single celled marine plants named photosynthetic algae? Can we afford to gamble with that tipping point? I think not.

I wonder what the babies born today will be thinking when they are 50 years old in 2068, if their drinking waters are polluted and their air is so loaded with carbon that cloudy days and heat advisories are the norm. The Mauna Loa atmospheric carbon level went over 410ppm in 2018 which is 17% or 60ppm above the scientific safe level of 350ppm.   Extreme weather ravages every part of our world this year as temperatures soar or sink due to atmospheric change. We cannot anticipate the world we live in today will exist the same in their future. Our stewardship, or lack of it will be remembered in history.  When animals are extinct, the oceans are higher, and everything else that results from exploitation instead of stewardship for our posterity has become a reality, those who live in that future will wonder what we were thinking.

The 2017 NAR Property Rights and Environment Committee recommended a commitment to principles of sustainability and energy conservation which will preserve our environment and nation as a vibrant, healthy prosperous place to live and work, endorsing programs and policies that promote environmental resiliency while educating Real Estate Professionals and the public about voluntary, market-based solutions that reduce greenhouse gases and conserve energy, including expedited permitting and tax benefits.  
It seems to me, as a Real Estate Professional, my industry is uniquely positioned to advocate for the future. To lobby for the earth means only that once you accept this reality,  you dedicate moments to signing and mailing letters to elected representatives who vote against decarbonization of the Earth's atmosphere. Maybe you would travel to another place where people do not understand the scientific reality of our planet and talk about this. Maybe you just send an email, text or make a phone call for with your family once a week. Maybe you will make a video, or visit an elected official at a town meeting. Maye you will commit to learning about environmental science from organizations like the Union of Concerned Scientists of the USA or Yale Climate 360.  I have decided follow a path of stewardship by supporting families born today who will live in a world I will not see unless I am 118 years old. Please join me.

The important thing is, that in our hearts, we commit to protecting the Earth where we will not live, because it is the place our grandchildren will live and remember us.  Imagine the good works you could do and how your good works will be multiplied by your commitment to doing well by doing good.

I watch wildfires burn the west of my country, while superstorms destroy the east. Extreme weather threatens land, functioning cities and healthful environments everywhere on Earth. A continual hum of climate change, rising carbon levels in the atmosphere, melting glaciers, wildlife degradation and floods stream across national newspapers.  I have come to accept my responsibility reaches beyond my next closing, consultation, property identification or marketing plan. As Real Estate Professionals, we can no longer stand in silence as the very basis of our industry, the land and environment, is threatened. The most recent United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), released in Korea on October 8, 2018 includes more than 6,000 scientific references which can be summarized in just few sentences with terrible implications for our future by 2040.

When I established my real estate business in 1996, my plan was to help other people, practicing skills based on confidence, personal integrity, empathy, transparency, comparable property analysis, investment opportunity, community knowledge, education, property functionality, financial planning and transaction management.  My business has been refined and succeeded with hands on experience, earned trust and continued education that directly improves the quality of life of those to whom I give my services. My goal was never to convince people to do something that would benefit me before them, but to give a service that is multifaceted, interpretative, highly personal, extremely confidential and unique to each person.  In 2018 I have come to appreciate that my Code of Ethics reaches beyond fiduciary, legal and transactional responsibilities.  As a REALTOR® my obligation is to transparency and integrity supporting my clients, our civilization and the preservation of a healthful environment.


David Carr, MA, PSCS.    Member GNHAR since 1996   T - @ctrealtordcarr
 Copyright©2018  David Carr, REALTOR®   , All Rights reserved.