CT-COVID-Opening-Day-May-20-2020

Greetings,

 I hope this finds you doing good on this May 20^th, COVID Opening Day CT 2020. It has been a strange and challenging springtime,

(1) My   New Haven Milford Metro and Greater Connecticut real estate market scheduled property showings still show definite decline in buyer requests to view property through the month of March into April. This trend began to correct however there is still a difference between the number of showings this year compared to 2019

 There are multiple reasons, however the most obvious are buyer’s apprehension and seller reservations about either moving or having strangers in their home. This has created a unique Spring 2020 Market in Southern Connecticut which I anticipate will a deliver a vigorous recovery in June and July 2020.  New Listings in New Haven County are down 54% ending April 2020, while pending sales in the same cohort are down only 11%, days on Market are down while Median sales prices are up from $230K to $255K. I provide market specific data for my fiduciary and past clients

(2) The homebased compounding, virtual employment, virtual commute factor in my New Haven Milford Metro and greater Connecticut Market is only beginning to be understood as New York City residents have experienced a possibly life-changing event that may motivate some of them to reconsider residency, methods and means of employment. 

Aetna recently stated “...all Connecticut-based employees who are currently working from home will continue to do so through the end of the summer.”  The COVID-19 has allowed employers to implement home-based operations, debug, and experience the effectiveness of this business model. Before social distancing protocols web-based meetings were available however their application was just being appreciated.

On March 27 2020 NPR ran a story the claims Working From Home Has Rewards The Office Can't Offer, then  on May 21, 2020  Facebook announced "many" of their Employees are going to to work from home permanently, This list goes on an on when your search "survey-home-office-2020"

(3) The financial effect on qualified home buyers is questionable as information suggests 70% of the working population was not directly impacted by COVID-19 due to home-based employment and other contractual obligations provided by employers. It seems to me a majority of the financial devastation is being endured by small business owners retail and service industry employees, especially those in the restaurant and childcare industries. I have no information to discuss what percentage of this cohort would have been a home buyer in this market.

 (4)  Mortgage financing remains very affordable 30-year fixed mortgages in the middle to low 3% for qualified applicants.

Home ownership is a lifestyle and investment made by people who recognize these values and are able to consistently support the obligation with financial income. Now more than ever, people are considering their lifestyle and work balance after 2 months of social distancing and restricted movement in traditional shopping venues.

Looking ahead I anticipate Connecticut and My d New Haven Milford Metro to be an extremely attractive destination based on our quality of life, affordability, proximity to New York in New England, the availability of Metro-North rail to New York City, and our interstate highway system.

 I remain committed to help my fiduciary clients make the right choice at the right time, and will continue to deliver timely information to help you make the right choice, at the right time regarding real estate as a lifestyle and investment. Original Content by David Carr, Licensed Agent and Professional Standards Certified Specialist.  Copyright 5/20/2020 - All Rights Reserved  T@ctrealdavecarr

Milford New Haven Metro CT HPI Report ending 1Q2020

April 30, 2020 -- While requests for property showings have decreased in March, we have seen recovery in mid-April (according to ShowingTime).  Overall, we have less inventory ( 976 SFR comprising 1000-3200 sqft priced $200,000-$700,000) in all New Haven County  with anticipation of a May 2020 buying surge as 30-year interest rates remain around 3.5% for qualified borrowers with over 1800 closed transaction in the previous six months.

The FHFA House Price Index for my Milford New Haven Metro (Purchase Estimated Sales Price Data) Seasonally adjusted value went up 1.64 to 175.51 (a value comparable to 3Q2009) while the Non-Seasonal value corrected 1.23 to 174.39 (a value comparable to 3Q2010). This continues to support the history of the Carr value Shelf (PONSA 158-164) (SA156-163)

As we reflect on 4Q2019  we remember " comparing the All Transactions (AT) cohort to the “Purchase Only Not Seasonally Adjusted (PONSA)” Values we see Year To Date (YTD)  Growth  of 6.57 in my New Haven Milford CT Metro of 6.57 and a one quarter decline of 0.43.  Looking back to 3 Q 2017 we see a net NSA growth of 9.71.  The PONSA is a quarterly decrease in value compared t the 2.29 increase in the All Transactions (AT) dataset. It's important to understand the distinction between these two datasets as previously discussed in my market analysis and FHFA materials.

Connecticut and my Milford New Haven Metro remains underappreciated despite our proximity, climate and high quality of life.This unprecedented 2020 Spring market has created new financial and logical challenges for this market adding opportunities for qualified participants in Connecticut. 

Since 1996 I am here to help you discern value and quality of life when the time is right for you.  People move because it’s the right time more than anything else. People complete home purchases with higher interest rates in more challenging historical environments than today. Is there anything I can do to help you make a good decision?  I am here to help. Copyright©04.30.20 All Rights Reserved. Follow me on twitter @ctrealdavecarr

Carr New Haven County Residential Real Estate Price Reduction Report for May 2020

May 1, 2020 -- 82% Sellers of 976 single family homes in my Carr New Haven County CT Residential Real Estate Price Reduction Report (c)  are maintaining their price as lack of inventory may increase demand for homes priced from $200,000 to $700,000 which offer 1000 to 3200 sqft. The confidence in my market is greater than a national average reported below.   When I review the last 45 days of MLS market activity, I see 89 sellers reducing their price since April 17, 2020. There 52 reductions between 04/16/2020 and 04/01/2020,  34 reductions between 03/31/2020 and 03/17/2020, 41 reductions from 03/17/2020 to 03/03/2020 and only 25 eduction from  03/02/2020 to 02/17/2020 a period when the general public not knowingly impacted by COVID19. To provide broader definition for this  May 1, 2020  Carr New Haven County CT Residential Real Estate Price Reduction Report (c) there were also  831 Single Family Residential (SFR) houses and condominiums identified by REALTORS as pending sales and 643 closed transactions from 05/01 /2020 to 03/03/2020 making a total of 2449 comparable SFR components for this measurement.

The Months of Standing Inventory (MSI) indicates three months of inventory, a historical shortage, because  there are 976 properties available for purchase in the sample with 321 properties closing per month since May 3, 2020 with a broader measure of 1857 ( 309.5 per month)  closing  between 05/01/2020 to 11/04/2019.  Traditionally a real estate market is balance when a six month inventory exists  

 “Nearly 70% of Americans have secure employment and those interested in purchasing homes are looking at the enticing mortgage rates,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun (nar.realtor; 4.30.2020). “One in five potential buyers has dropped out of the market due to job-loss concerns, hopes are the massive financial stimulus package can help replace a good portion of lost income until the economy steadily reopens. More home sellers are needed to relieve the acute inventory shortage.”  The 04-27-20 NAR Flash-Survey of 95,688 REALTORS nationwide provided 2,508 responses. Agents responding said 51% of buyers are delaying their home buying “a couple of months.”  36% of responding agents said buyers are not expecting lower prices. 76% of their sellers were not lowering prices.

  My Milford New Haven Metro Connecticut neighborhood has been undervalued nationally in the Greater New York Metro since 2014 when one considers our exceptional quality of life. The rising interest in compounding and virtual workspaces makes commuting on the Metro North railway in proximity to New York City a better value than ever. 2020 is virtually a unique time to buy or sell your home when you work with me, David Carr, Professional Standards Certified Specialist, licensed in Connecticut since 1996.  I am here when the time is right for you. Follow me on Twitter @ctrealdavecarr.   NOTE:  The  Carr Residential Real Estate Price Reduction Report (CRREPRR) (c) is an original presentation of verified facts presented to help consumers interpret possible trends in specific 2020 COVID19 Real Estae Markets ( defined by price, location, ammenity and time).  The  CRREPRR(c) is a unique lens of interpretation and data  measurement that can be reproduced by any consumer using verifiable data.  The CRREPRR(c) is not intended to be a predication since there are numerous factors that effect individual motivation to buy or sell real property at any time, and is not endorsed by my affiliated colleagues or brokerages as of May 1, 2020   

May 1, 2020 -- As your fiduciary agent, I am prepared to complete all aspects of real estate transactions while complying with social distance directives. I can provide my qualified clients live video to support an online offer, then arrange a physical showing. I will complete all “paperwork” using secure, authenticated, state of the art electronic document platforms. I can allow my clients to “attend” the home inspection via live video feed, asking questions and clarifying concerns in a secure, real time environment. I can arrange full document presentation for mortgage approval and appraisal, then walk you through before you execute your final closing documents

2020 is virtually a unique time to buy or sell your home when you work with David Carr, Professional Standards Certified Specialist, licensed in Connecticut since 1996.  I am here when the time is right for you. Copyright©05.01.20 All Rights Reserved.      Follow me on Twitter @ctrealdavecarr.

April 30, 2020 -- As we work to keep our neighbors safe, the responsibility of Social Distancing continues to challenge the real estate industry for a variety of reasons. While requests for property showings have decreased in March, we have seen recovery in mid-April (according to ShowingTime).  Overall, we have less inventory with anticipation of a May 2020 buying surge as 30-year interest rates remain around 3.5% for qualified borrowers.

This unprecedented Spring market has created new financial and logical challenges for this market adding opportunities for qualified participants in Connecticut. The FHFA House Price Index for my Milford New Haven Metro (Purchase Estimated Sales Price Data) Seasonally adjusted value went up 1.64 to 175.51 (a value comparable to 3Q2009) while the Non-Seasonal value corrected 1.23 to 174.39 (a value comparable to 3Q2010). Connecticut and my Milford New Haven Metro remains underappreciated despite our proximity, climate and high quality of life.

Since 1996 I am here to help you discern value and quality of life when the time is right for you.  People move because it’s the right time more than anything else. People complete home purchases with higher interest rates in more challenging historical environments than today. Is there anything I can do to help you make a good decision?  I am here to help. Copyright©04.30.20All Rights Reserved.