8-22-2017 (CT) The Greater New Haven Milford Connecticut Metro
area continued to maintain stability since 2012 (despite two quarters of correction
when the index dropped 0.02 in 3Q2016 and 0.54 in 4Q2016)
to post another positive report.
2Q2017 showed another quarter of solid strength in New Haven
Milford Metro All Transactions HPI rising to 179.57, a 1.13-point 90-day gain, 2.52
higher than the 2012 creation of the Carr Value Shelf, when the 1Q2012 Value
was 177.05. Connecticut REALTORS
reported a statewide increase in median values ending June 2017 following
previous months of increased transactions with no price appreciation.
The Carr Value Shelf has been defined since 2014 as the FHFA-HPI
range of value between 173 and 178. The Milford New Haven Metro broke out of The
Carr Value Shelf lower range once in 1Q2014 for one quarter, and out of the
upper range three times, 3Q2016 at 179.1, 4Q2016 at 179.08, and 2Q2017 at
179.57
In 2012, I first identified the beginning of this buyers’ market
on my face book pages, yet lacked the statistical credibility to support my
observation, which led to the creation of the Carr Value Shelf in 2014. My goal
was not be another REALTOR crowing “now is the time to buy” because it would be
good for my industry. My commitment is
to identify conditions favorable to people who want to access the leveraged
power of real estate ownership, with it’s associated tax and investment
advantages.
In a May 22 2017 commentary about “Highest and Lowest Risk US
Housing Markets” (by CoreLogic, a data and
analytics company), Hartford and New Haven Milford presented the
two lowest (0.30% & 3.5% respectively) HPI growth since January 2012. Of
the 257 metros both Hartford and New Haven placed in the 35th (of
100 rank) for flip rankings (93 & 97 respectively). New Haven/Milford
ranked better than Hartford and Bridgeport/Stamford/Norwalk in the fraud
rankings. The data indicates lower than median risk couple with 11-12% rent
growth since 2012. This may be indicator of a more a secure market than other
metros in the United States, despite Connecticut’s financial struggles, which
seem to be priced into vales at this time. When we look at house prices and
taxes in New Jersey, Long island and New York City, property in Connecticut is
a comparable regional bargain.
Other indicators of undervaluation can be found in the FHFA Metro Area
House Price All Transaction Residential Indexes, New Haven Milford was rated in
the bottom 7% for overall appreciation (240 of 257) ending 2017Q1. For only
2017Q1, New Haven-Milford lost 0.47 point to place 201 of 257. One-year
appreciation for the area was +0.68, very close to the five years, 0.60-point
increase since 2012, indicating a possible shelf of value comparable to
1991-1997, Since 1991 the index has increased 58.71.
Homeownership was never supposed to be a cash out vehicle. Home
ownership is protected on many levels, as long as the owners don’t agree to
liens. A person buying in 1997 would have seen their estate appreciate almost
100% through 2017 if they did not assume cash out encumberences. Home ownership
(not mortgages) free people from rent payments, allows their cost of living to
go down or be stabilized, provides tax benefits, and can provide for end of
life financial and life place security
My comparable observation is that stability over the past 5 years
is a positive economic indicator for the region. Inventory of property sold in this period has
maintained a base value despite statewide economic issues caused be years of
debt loading by state government which began in the early 1990’s. This
financial situation now appears to be fully disclosed and priced into values,
leaving Connecticut a better life place choice than New York or New Jersey,
with regional rail and quality of life assets that will support further growth
of real estate values over time. Evolution in workplace structure allows more
people to consider a two hour rail commute an acceptable choice when
supplemented with wireless technologies for productivity or entertainment. Changes in climate have created new
opportunities for grape and hop cultivation. New York and New Jersey real estate values and
tax burdens make my Greater New Haven – Milford shoreline market a comparable
bargain, and may suggest that Eastern Connecticut will be the New Hamptons.
Since 1996 I, David Carr, have established licensed fiduciary
relationships with buyers and sellers of real property in Connecticut. My goal
is to provide exceptional needs assessment, value identification, transparent
transaction management, and comparable market analysis. My experience, care for
my clients, and team at Berkshire Hathaway Home Services New England (“On the
Green” in Milford, CT.) add value to the quality of service I provide. For more
information to schedule an appointment call 203-877-2704 x400826. You may find
me online at ahomeforme.com.
All-Transactions
Indexes (Estimated using Sales Prices and Appraisal Data) Aug 22, 2017
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2012 1 177.05 -1.18
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2012 2 174.8 -1.18
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2012 3 174.89 -1.17
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2012 4 175.25 -1.17
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2013 1 175.21 -1.19
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2013 2 174.89 -1.19
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2013 3 174.82 -1.23
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2013 4 173.39 -1.31
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2014 1 171.92 -1.35
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2014 2 172.38 -1.31
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2014 3 173.07 -1.29
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2014 4 173.83 -1.29
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2015 1 176.37 -1.32
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2015 2 176.73 -1.34
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2015 3 176.03 -1.36
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2015 4 176.91 -1.41
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2016 1 176.29 -1.43
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2016 2 178.04 -1.4
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2016 3 179.1 -1.35
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2016 4 179.08 -1.39
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2017 1 178.44 -1.6
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2017 2 179.57 -1.58
