Carr Value Shelf continues All Transaction appreciation ending 4Q2019

4-Q-2019 New Haven Milford  CT Metro FHFA HPI Continues All  Transactions Value Appreciation  +1.93  points

Happy Spring Time 2020

My Metro New Haven Milford Connecticut neighborhood has continued to appreciate for thirty three months since   
1-Q-2017.  in the past 90 days our FHFA All Transactions index rose  to 191.78. ending 4Q2019

It's important to note that since June 30, 2012 my market has maintained  stability with appreciation, while trailing the national averages, a condition that may present deferred appreciation value. This  pattern of deferred appreciation I have previously discussed can be examined in the 1991- 1997 period following the Saving and loan debacle that followed the late 1980's expansion. My observations of professional data are presented to help you gain perspective and identify potential value. There are "Multiple Values of Home Ownership" besides appreciation, since most people have to spend money for shelter.

My observations are not intended to be a statement of future value as I only report what happened in a specific market defined by time, inventory, and economy. My experience in Comparable Market Analysis enables me to integrate a multitude of value indicators to deliver an accurate present and historical representation of a specific property.

"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2014 2 171.55 -1.27
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2014 3 172.49 -1.25
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2014 4 172.92 -1.25
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2015 1 175.42 -1.28
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2015 2 175.84 -1.29
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2015 3 174.77 -1.3
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2015 4 175.61 -1.34
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2016 1 175.06 -1.36
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2016 2 177 -1.34
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2016 3 177.94 -1.3
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2016 4 177.85 -1.32
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2017 1 176.55 -1.47
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2017 2 177.05 -1.4
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2017 3 178.33 -1.4
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2017 4 180.38 -1.42
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2018 1 180.57 -1.56
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2018 2 180.55 -1.41
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2018 3 183.21 -1.44
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2018 4 183.49 -1.43
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2019 1 183.76 -1.53
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2019 2 187.77 -1.47
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2019 3 189.85 -1.41
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2019 4 191.78 -1.4

FHFA Purchase-Only Indexes (Estimated using Sales Price Data)  Select Metropolitan Areas—Distress-Free Measures (Developmental Index; Seasonally Adjusted and Not Seasonally Adjusted/Unadjusted)

This index shows only purchases ( excluding refinance values) presenting 1.64 appreciation  in the Seasonally Adjusted Values with a 0.53 Not Seasonally Adjusted reduction over the past six months. 

Please understand the difference in these two data points and how they compare to the All Transaction Value. My duty as a fiduciary agent is to present relevant market information from credible sources for my clients 

                                      N.S.A  S.Adj  

35300 "New Haven-Milford, CT" 2016 1 156.57 158.92
35300 "New Haven-Milford, CT" 2016 2 163.79 162.63
35300 "New Haven-Milford, CT" 2016 3 161.57 159.15
35300 "New Haven-Milford, CT" 2016 4 161.86 162.85
35300 "New Haven-Milford, CT" 2017 1 160.62 162.88
35300 "New Haven-Milford, CT" 2017 2 163.33 162.04
35300 "New Haven-Milford, CT" 2017 3 165.52 163.37
35300 "New Haven-Milford, CT" 2017 4 164.77 165.8
35300 "New Haven-Milford, CT" 2018 1 167.56 169.74
35300 "New Haven-Milford, CT" 2018 2 169.29 167.76
35300 "New Haven-Milford, CT" 2018 3 170.63 168.76
35300 "New Haven-Milford, CT" 2018 4 168.83 169.88
35300 "New Haven-Milford, CT" 2019 1 168.89 170.95
35300 "New Haven-Milford, CT" 2019 2 175.92 174.22
35300 "New Haven-Milford, CT" 2019 3 175.62 173.87
35300 "New Haven-Milford, CT" 2019 4 174.39 175.51

Please understand the difference in these two data points and how they compare to the All Transaction Value.

Quarterly Purchase-Only Indexes
The standard indexes reported in quarterly news releases. Use prices from sales transactions of mortgage data obtained from the Enterprises     

Quarterly All-Transactions Indexes
Build on the purchase-only index data by adding prices from appraisal data obtained from the Enterprises.

Quarterly Expanded-Data indexes
Build on the purchase-only and all-transactions index data by adding prices from FHA and county recorder data.  

Purchase-Only Indexes Volatility Parameters
The standard deviation of house price growth (accounting for the time between repeat sales). Use prices from sales transactions of mortgage data obtained from the Enterprises.    

All-Transactions Indexes Volatility Parameters
The standard deviation of house price growth (accounting for the time between repeat sales). Build on the purchase-only volatility data by adding prices from appraisal data obtained from the Enterprises.

 My duty as a fiduciary agent is to present relevant market information from credible sources for my clients.

It seems to me people purchase real property when they are at an intersection of time and life place with the resources and confidence to invest in making a commitment to a community, compared to renting. 

I look forward to helping you make the right move, when the time s right for you.

Sincerely,

David Carr

Copyright (C) March 8, 2020 All Rights Reserved