3Q2019 New Haven Milford CT Metro HPI Continues All Transactions Value Appreciation +2.29 points

Nov 27, 2019

3Q2019 New Haven Milford  CT Metro HPI Continues All  Transactions Value Appreciation  +2.29 points

Happy Thanksgiving!

My Metro New Haven Milford Connecticut neighborhood has continued to appreciate for thirty months since 1 Q2017.  in the past 90 days our All Transactions index rose 2.29 to 190.48

It's important to note that since June 30, 2012 my market has maintained  stability with appreciation, while trailing the national averages, a condition that may present deferred appreciation value. This  pattern of deferred appreciation I have previously discussed can be examined in the 1991- 1997 period following the Saving and loan debacle that followed the late 1980's expansion. My observations of professional data are presented to help you gain perspective and identify potential value. There are "Multiple Values of Home Ownership" besides appreciation, since most people have to spend money for shelter.

My observations are not intended to be a statement of future value as I only report what happened in a specific market defined by time, inventory, and economy. My experience in Comparable Market Analysis enables me to integrate a multitude of value indicators to deliver an accurate present and historical representation of a specific property.

Evidence of market confidence can be seen in an increasing presence of Home Equity (HELOC) Loan advertisements, and Mortgages with no appraisal requirement.

Connecticut remains a great value for many reasons, including

250 miles of coastline
3rd Healthiest 2018 population in the USA
#4 ranked for bio science patents in the USA
#5 ranked for 2018 Pre-K education quality in the USA
#1 for 2018 College readiness in the USA with 38 colleges
100 minuet Amtrak travel to New York
Hospitable Climate

When you want to learn more contact "David Carr Ct Real Estate"
Look at my market with me free and secure app http://homesnap.com/david-carr-1
Visit my company webpage

I'm here when the time is right for you,
The foundation of your success in real estate since 1996 

Note from the same 3Q2019 All Transactions index how my All Transactions HPI Metro has not fully recovered from the 2008 Black Swan peak  

"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2004 4 189.63 -1.23   APPRECIATION CONTINUES
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2005 1 194.35 -1.27   

"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2005 2 201.66 -1.31    
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2005 3 208.42 -1.34
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2005 4 212.6 -1.39
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2006 1 216.07 -1.44
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2006 2 217.54 -1.43
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2006 3 217.74 -1.43
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2006 4 219.06 -1.44
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2007 1 220.38 -1.46   PEAK VALUE
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2007 2 219.7 -1.43
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2007 3 217.17 -1.41
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2007 4 215.58 -1.41
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2008 1 215.02 -1.38
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2008 2 208.68 -1.36
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2008 3 201.42 -1.34
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2008 4 200.46 -1.35
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2009 1 202.2 -1.3
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2009 2 195.03 -1.24
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2009 3 189.32 -1.24  BEGIN 190 NEGATIVE EQUITY  

Property would be of equal/higher value when purchased after 3Q2009 after enduring ten years of undervaluation  

"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2009 4 189.69 -1.25   
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2010 1 186.79 -1.25
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2010 2 185.65 -1.23
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2010 3 187.44 -1.23
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2010 4 186.91 -1.2
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2011 1 181.72 -1.22
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2011 2 177.87 -1.21
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2011 3 178.97 -1.2
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2011 4 179.74 -1.17
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2012 1 176.97 -1.17
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2012 2 174.49 -1.16 CARR VALUESHELF ESTABLISHED
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2012 3 174.77 -1.16  
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2012 4 175.02 -1.16
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2013 1 174.98 -1.17
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2013 2 174.62 -1.18
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2013 3 174.28 -1.21
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2013 4 173.03 -1.29
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2014 1 171.68 -1.32
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2014 2 171.7 -1.27   TECHNICAL LOW FOR MOST 
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2014 3 172.52 -1.25      APPRECIATION
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2014 4 173 -1.25
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2015 1 175.5 -1.28
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2015 2 175.86 -1.29
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2015 3 174.86 -1.31
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2015 4 175.76 -1.35
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2016 1 175.15 -1.37
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2016 2 177.04 -1.35
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2016 3 177.95 -1.3
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2016 4 178.06 -1.33
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2017 1 176.7 -1.48
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2017 2 177.48 -1.41
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2017 3 178.63 -1.42  CARR VALUESHELF EXCEEDED
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2017 4 180.66 -1.44
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2018 1 181.04 -1.59
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2018 2 180.6 -1.44
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2018 3 183.8 -1.5
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2018 4 184.45 -1.52
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2019 1 184.27 -1.62
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2019 2 188.19 -1.51
"New Haven-Milford, CT" 35300 2019 3 190.48 -1.46   

As we compare the All Transactions (AT) cohort above to the “Purchase
Only Not Seasonally Adjusted" (PONSA) Values below,  we see Year To Date (YTD) 


Growth of 6.57 in my New Haven Milford CT Metro of 6.57 and a one quarter
decline of 0.43.  





Looking back to 3 Q 2017 we see a net NSA growth of 9.71.  The
PONSA is a quarterly decrease in value compared t the 2.29 increase in the All
Transactions (AT) data-set. Its important to understand the distinction between
these two data-sets as previously discussed in my market analysis and FHFA
materials.


What does this mean to you? In my opinion as a real
estate professional, not a statistician, this is one point of information that
can be compared to other hyper local comparable values in your target market
Price, Amenity, Location and Time (PALT). 
 

NOTE_ You have to read through this text alignment it did not copy the same, 

FHFA HPI  PURCHASE ONLY 3Q2019                  11/27/2019                             


 Not &Seasonally Adjusted                                          NSA      SA





Haven- Mlford, CT"             2006       1              196.02   198.06


Haven-Milford, CT"             2006       2              200.01   198.23


Haven-Milford, CT"             2006       3              197.82   195.14


Haven-Milford, CT"             2006       4              193.56   195.78


Haven-Milford, CT"             2007       1              199.39   201.6


Haven-Milford, CT"             2007       2              201.95   200.22    
-----PEAK S.A.


Haven-Milford, CT"             2007       3              201.13   197.82


Haven-Milford, CT"             2007       4              193.55   195.98


Haven-Milford, CT"             2008       1              185.58   188.11


Haven-Milford, CT"             2008       2              186.69   185.03


Haven-Milford, CT"             2008       3              182.58   179.04


Haven-Milford, CT"             2008       4              177.15   179.27


Haven-Milford, CT"             2009       1              176.84   180.16


Haven-Milford, CT"             2009       2              173.31   171.56


Haven-Milford, CT"             2009       3              179.01   174.94


Haven-Milford, CT"             2009       4              168.73   170.78


Haven-Milford, CT"             2010       1              166.24   170.04


Haven-Milford, CT"             2010       2              172.54   170.65


Haven-Milford, CT"             2010       3              174.46   170.09


Haven-Milford, CT"             2010       4              160.37   162.26


Haven-Milford, CT"             2011       1              153.85   157.84


Haven-Milford, CT"             2011       2              163.18   161.3


Haven-Milford, CT"             2011       3              162.24   157.98


Haven-Milford, CT"             2011       4              160.71   162.68


Haven-Milford, CT"             2012       1              150.79   154.67      


--- LOWEST  POINT ON LINE ABOVE ---



Haven-Milford, CT"             2012       2              158.12   156.3    



-----CARR NSA VALUE SHELF BEGINS ON LINE ABOVE--------


Haven-Milford, CT"             2012       3              161.56   157.57


Haven-Milford, CT"             2012       4              151.38   152.98


Haven-Milford, CT"             2013       1              154.61   158.4


Haven-Milford, CT"             2013       2              160.38   158.69


Haven-Milford, CT"             2013       3              161.41   157.73


Haven-Milford, CT"             2013       4              157.76   159.33


Haven-Milford, CT"             2014       1              153.58   156.77


Haven-Milford, CT"             2014       2              155.78   154.44


Haven-Milford, CT"             2014       3              158.74   155.56


Haven-Milford, CT"             2014       4              155.01   156.31


Haven-Milford, CT"             2015       1              154.99   157.71


Haven-Milford, CT"             2015       2              159.08   158.02


Haven-Milford, CT"             2015       3              162.28   159.36


Haven-Milford, CT"             2015       4              158.27   159.46


Haven-Milford, CT"             2016       1              156.72   159.12


Haven-Milford, CT"             2016       2              163.91   162.80  


-----CARR ALL TRANS VALUE SHELF ENDS ON LINE ABOVE-----



Haven-Milford, CT"             2016       3              161.48   159.08


Haven-Milford, CT"             2016       4              161.93   162.89


Haven-Milford, CT"             2017       1              160.8     163.13


Haven-Milford, CT"             2017       2              163.53   162.30    


--------CARR NSA VALUE SHELF ENDS ON LINE ABOVE-------


Haven-Milford, CT"             2017       3              165.72   163.61  (+2.19)


Haven-Milford, CT"             2017       4              165.07   166.02  (-0.65-YTD +4.27) 


Haven-Milford, CT"             2018       1              167.5    169.79  (+ 2.43)


Haven-Milford, CT"             2018       2              169.45   167.98  (+1.95)


Haven-Milford, CT"             2018       3              170.72   168.9   (+1.27)


Haven-Milford, CT"             2018       4            168.88   169.8 (-1.84)(YTD +2.3 NSA)


Haven-Milford, CT"             2019       1             168.86   171.07 (-0.02)


Haven-Milford, CT"             2019       2              175.96   174.3 (+7.10)


Haven-Milford, CT"             2019       3            175.43   173.75(-0.43)(YTD+6.57 NSA)

SOURCE:   https://www.fhfa.gov/DataTools/Downloads/Documents/HPI/HPI_PO_m





As we compare the All Transactions (AT) cohort at the beginning to the “Purchase
Only Not Seasonally Adjusted (PONSA)” Values we see Year To Date (YTD)  Growth 
of 6.57 in my New Haven Milford CT Metro of 6.57 and a one quarter
decline of 0.43.  





Looking back to 3 Q 2017 we see a net NSA growth of 9.71 over two years.  The 3Q2019
PONSA presents a 0.43 quarterly decrease in value compared to the 2.29 increase in the All Transactions (AT) dataset. It's important to understand the distinction between
these two datasets as previously discussed in my market analysis and FHFA
materials.


What does this mean to you? In my opinion as a real
estate professional, not a statistician, this is one point of professionally complied public information that can be compared to other hyper local comparable values in your target market Price, Amenity, Location and Time (PALT). 


My observations are not intended to be a statement of future value as I only report what happened in a specific market defined by time, inventory, and economy. My experience in Comparable Market Analysis enables me to integrate a multitude of value indicators to deliver an accurate present and historical representation of a specific property.

When you want to learn more contact "David Carr Ct Real Estate"
Look at my market with me free and secure app http://homesnap.com/david-carr-1
Visit my company webpage

I'm here when the time is right for you,
The foundation of your success in real estate since 1996 



Since 1996 I, David Carr, have established licensed fiduciary relationships with buyers and sellers of real property in Connecticut. My goal is to provide exceptional needs assessment, value identification, transparent transaction management, and comparable market analysis. My experience, care for my clients, and team at Berkshire Hathaway Home Services New England (“On the Green” in Milford, CT.) add value to the quality of service I provide. For more information to schedule an appointment call 203-877-2704 x400826. 



Price, Amenity, Location and Time (PALT). -CARR VALUE SHELF Copyright 2019 All Rights Reserved

NEW HAVEN MILFORD CT PRESENTS CONTINUED 2019 HOUSE PRICE INDEX GROWTH

NEW HAVEN MILFORD CT PRESENTS CONTINUED 2019 HOUSE PRICE INDEX GROWTH

Aug 28, 2019 (CT)  The Greater New Haven Milford Metro House Price Index rose 1.80 to 187.88 (-1.56)  ending 2Q2019.

New Haven-Milford, CT  is now ranked #180 nationwide of 221 ranked metros, another improvement since last quarter    One year New Haven-Milford  appreciation is now 3.61% . The past quarter appreciated 0.96%, and five year New Haven-Milford appreciation continues to improve this report at 9.50%

Just over the Housatonic River Bridge, Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk was ranked a little behind  New haven-Milford at #207 nationwide, an 4.3(1.68) FHFA HPI Index improvement since last quarter    One Year appreciation is now 2.88% . The past quarter appreciated 2.11%, and Five year appreciation continues to improve this report at 8.64%

The Carr New Haven Milford Metro Value Shelf (Established 2014)  is defined as the range of 173-178, the 5 point range HPI values have maintained and exceeded for the past 91 months. I first recognized appreciation in the third quarter of 2012 (2Q2012).

At 32 points below the 2007 Peak Value of 220 it seems my New Haven – Milford  Metro has room to grow statistically and logistically, as we are well positioned region on NYC Commuter Rail, two interstate highways with an incredible shoreline, quality of life and comparably affordable housing to Fairfield, Westchester and New York City. Other great values include our attractive, four season climate and Yale University.   

USA housing values have mostly recovered, in some places attaining new, bubble like highs, leaving Connecticut in the bottom 10% of the nation in recovery.  It’s very interesting to see San Francisco (#239), Santa Rosa (#240), and San Rafeal (#241) all trailing national indices posting one year and some quarterly value losses.

The FHFA eeported “The areas showing the smallest annual appreciation were: 1) Delaware 1.2 percent; 2) Maryland 1.5 percent; 3) District of Columbia 1.8 percent; 4) Iowa 2.2 percent; and 5) New Jersey 2.7 percent. Annual price increases were greatest in Boise City, ID, where prices increased by 13.6 percent. Prices were weakest in Oxnard-Thousand Oaks, Ventura, CA, where they increased 0.5 percent.”

The Aug 27, 2019  FHFA Connecticut Index (FHFA-HPI) of 179.81 (1.26)  placed my market about 10%   below the July 2006  Pre Recession 2007 Peak Index value which was  199.51 (1.12) .

Since 1996 you can depend on me to help you make good decisions about real estate when you are ready to learn, buy, sell and invest in Southern Connecticut and my Milford-New Haven Metro. I help my Fidicuary clients make decisions by evaluating information and opportunity is specific markets.

 #HomeOwnershipBuildsWealth when you invest your monthly housing expenses in real property without borrowing the equity.

Find me @ctrealdavecarr or explore my market with my free, confidential real estate education tool http://homesnap.com/david-carr-1

You can schedule an appointment or call me at my office, “On The Green” in Milford, CT.

Since 1996, I am the Foundation of Your Success in Real Estate, Here when the Time is Right for you.

"New Haven-Milford, CT"     35300  2007    1          220.37 -1.46    PEAK VALUE

"New Haven-Milford, CT"     35300  2007    2          219.69 -1.43

"New Haven-Milford, CT"     35300  2007    3          217.17 -1.41

"New Haven-Milford, CT"     35300  2007    4          215.58 -1.41

"New Haven-Milford, CT"     35300  2008    1          215.04 -1.38

"New Haven-Milford, CT"     35300  2008    2          208.68 -1.36

"New Haven-Milford, CT"     35300  2008    3          201.43 -1.34

"New Haven-Milford, CT"     35300  2008    4          200.47 -1.35

"New Haven-Milford, CT"     35300  2009    1          202.21 -1.3

"New Haven-Milford, CT"     35300  2009    2          195.05 -1.24

"New Haven-Milford, CT"     35300  2009    3          189.34 -1.24

"New Haven-Milford, CT"     35300  2009    4          189.7   -1.25

"New Haven-Milford, CT"     35300  2010    1          186.8   -1.25

"New Haven-Milford, CT"     35300  2010    2          185.62 -1.24

"New Haven-Milford, CT"     35300  2010    3          187.44 -1.23

"New Haven-Milford, CT"     35300  2010    4          186.91 -1.2

"New Haven-Milford, CT"     35300  2011    1          181.69 -1.22

"New Haven-Milford, CT"     35300  2011    2          177.9   -1.21

"New Haven-Milford, CT"     35300  2011    3          178.96 -1.2

"New Haven-Milford, CT"     35300  2011    4          179.75 -1.18

"New Haven-Milford, CT"     35300  2012    1          176.95 -1.17

"New Haven-Milford, CT"     35300  2012    2          174.51 -1.16  

"New Haven-Milford, CT"     35300  2012    3          174.74 -1.16  FIRST APPRECIATION

"New Haven-Milford, CT"     35300  2012    4          175.05 -1.16

"New Haven-Milford, CT"     35300  2013    1          174.99 -1.17

"New Haven-Milford, CT"     35300  2013    2          174.65 -1.18

"New Haven-Milford, CT"     35300  2013    3          174.32 -1.21

"New Haven-Milford, CT"     35300  2013    4          172.99 -1.29 - CARR VALUE SHELF BEGINS

"New Haven-Milford, CT"     35300  2014    1          171.62 -1.32

"New Haven-Milford, CT"     35300  2014    2          171.58 -1.28

"New Haven-Milford, CT"     35300  2014    3          172.48 -1.26

"New Haven-Milford, CT"     35300  2014    4          172.91 -1.26 - 1 Year

"New Haven-Milford, CT"     35300  2015    1          175.51 -1.29

"New Haven-Milford, CT"     35300  2015    2          175.92 -1.3

"New Haven-Milford, CT"     35300  2015    3          175.05 -1.32

"New Haven-Milford, CT"     35300  2015    4          175.8   -1.36—2 Years

"New Haven-Milford, CT"     35300  2016    1          175.32 -1.38

"New Haven-Milford, CT"     35300  2016    2          177.07 -1.35

"New Haven-Milford, CT"     35300  2016    3          177.92 -1.31

"New Haven-Milford, CT"     35300  2016    4          178.07 -1.33—3 Years

"New Haven-Milford, CT"     35300  2017    1          177.08 -1.5

"New Haven-Milford, CT"     35300  2017    2          177.61 -1.42

"New Haven-Milford, CT"     35300  2017    3          178.64 -1.43

"New Haven-Milford, CT"     35300  2017    4          180.6   -1.45  - 4 Years CARR VALUE SHELF

"New Haven-Milford, CT"     35300  2018    1          181.09 -1.62

"New Haven-Milford, CT"     35300  2018    2          181.32 -1.49

"New Haven-Milford, CT"     35300  2018    3          184.51 -1.58

"New Haven-Milford, CT"     35300  2018    4          184.75 -1.65

"New Haven-Milford, CT"     35300  2019    1          186.08 -1.75

"New Haven-Milford, CT"     35300  2019    2          187.88 -1.56

SOURCE: https://www.fhfa.gov

Bond investors and David Carr have confidence in Connecticut

These excerpts from the attached 4/18/19  CT. Post article support my confidence in the multiple values of living in Connecticut- David Carr.   “Bond investors overwhelmingly are making a bet on the future of Connecticut, They can read official statements and they have analysts who do that all the time but to be in a room in that setting and to kick the tires and ask questions ... you’re getting a qualitative analysis of what’s happening with the state and the leadership.” Shawn Wooden, State Treasurer said.  Howard Sitzer at CreditSights, said Connecticut is moving slowly in the right direction, and that helped the recent sale. “The ‘debt diet’ Governor Lamont has proposed...may have additionally driven demand for this issue,” David M. Womack, senior vice president at Blaylock Van LLC and a co-manager of the bond issue said “ “It’s still by and large a wealthy state, it’s got good schools and it’s between Boston and New York. ... People aren’t heading for the exits.”  

https://www.ctpost.com/business/danhaar/article/Dan-Haar-Celebrating-mildly-the-right-13747517.php

An Artistic Value of Home Ownership

Making your shelter a home is an Aesthetic Value of Home Ownership. Take a picture you like, get the stair riser measurements (maybe 12ft x 3ft) have the image blown up to that size, cut it into strips, apply using a smooth wallpaper adhesive, then do clear gloss or plastic to finish, MY experience is your opportunity.

How Can I help?

I care about your dreams and your future. What do you need most right now? How do you feel about that? How can I help? Let's start the confidential conversation so we can identify opportunities and resources together.

David Carr New Haven Milford Ct Metro Value Shelf Report ending 4Q2018

David Carr New Haven Milford Ct Metro Value Shelf Report ending  4Q2018   

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) reported today, February 26, 2019, that Connecticut posted the 2nd smallest annual appreciation at 0.9 percent in home prices between the fourth quarters of 2017 and 2018 while values rose in all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

Multiple factors may be considered when deciding to invest in Connecticut Real Estate in 2019, however lack of relative over-appreciation does not seem to be a primary concern. According to the FHFA HPI Calculator today, a $100,000 New Haven Milford Metro property purchased in 1Q2012 would be worth $112,296 today. 

My home market, New Haven-Milford, CT  placed in 222nd national position with a one year appreciation of  2.08%,  a small decline from position 216 in 3Q2018 when the annual appreciation was reported to be 3.10%   Since 2014,  the “Carr New Haven Milford Metro Value Shelf©”  has maintained and appreciated beyond the original established range of 173-178 based on the  FHFA All-Transactions house price index,  which adds appraisal values from refinance mortgages to the purchase-only data sample. Historical observations are available on my platforms.

Connecticut real estate values in this sample appreciated 7.43% in the past 5 years and over 75% since 1991, yet your target market and property preference may be different, something I am available to investigate with you, using a variety of data tools that target where and what you are most interested in. You may have heard “New is national, but real estate is local,” so choosing the data configuration and unbiased source appropriate for your unique position and goal is essential. In my experience, real estate is hyper local, drilling down to school district and geographical boundaries, affected by a variety of community resources and local factors.

As we consider our Connecticut One Year House Price Appreciation we see Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk up  0.91% and Hartford-East Hartford-Middletown up 0.50%  in the “20 Metropolitan Areas with Lowest Rates of Appreciation” holding national positions 235 and 239 respectively, out of a total 246. 

The top five states in 2018 annual appreciation were: 1) Idaho up11.9%,  Nevada up 11.2%,  Utah up 9.8%,  Georgia up 8.2% and Arizona  up 8.2% while the top five metros were Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, Nevada up  17.63% , Boise City, Idaho  up 16.65%,  Idaho Falls, Idaho up 13.78%, Spokane-Spokane Valley, Washington up 13.08%  and Coeur d'Alene, Idaho  up 12.85%.   This demonstrates a huge appreciation differential for Connecticut, which I propose is undervalued considering deferred appreciation since 2012, our close proximity to New York City, New England, the Long Island Sound Shoreline, our quality of life, recreational resources, schools, health care and a relatively hospitable climate.  It’s important to remember the FHFA House Price index is constructed to reflect the weighted average quarterly price change for the fifty states and Washington, D.C. The weights are the estimated share of one-unit detached housing units in the respective states.

At the peak of Irrational Exuberance in New Haven-Milford,  house price values peaked ending 1Q2007 at 220.41 (with a 1.46 standard error).   We can observe the 2014 bottom of the Great Recession in my Milford New Haven Metro as reflected here in the FHFA All-Transactions Indexes, estimated using sales prices and appraisal data not seasonally adjusted.  The number in parentheses is the standard error.

"New Haven-Milford, CT"             35300    2011       1              181.66   ( 1.22)   4Q2018 Equity Point

"New Haven-Milford, CT"             35300    2011       2              177.88   ( 1.21)

"New Haven-Milford, CT"             35300    2011       3              178.89   ( 1.20)

"New Haven-Milford, CT"             35300    2011       4              179.74   ( 1.18)

"New Haven-Milford, CT"             35300    2012       1              176.96   ( 1.17)

"New Haven-Milford, CT"             35300    2012       2              174.5     ( 1.16)        

"New Haven-Milford, CT"             35300    2012       3              174.76   ( 1.16)

"New Haven-Milford, CT"             35300    2012       4              175.05   ( 1.16)

"New Haven-Milford, CT"             35300    2013       1              174.95   ( 1.17)

"New Haven-Milford, CT"             35300    2013       2              174.67   ( 1.18)

"New Haven-Milford, CT"             35300    2013       3              174.36   ( 1.21)

"New Haven-Milford, CT"             35300    2013       4              173.04   ( 1.29)

"New Haven-Milford, CT"             35300    2014       1              171.51   ( 1.33)   BOTTOM

"New Haven-Milford, CT"             35300    2014       2              171.75   ( 1.28)

"New Haven-Milford, CT"             35300    2014       3              172.44   ( 1.26)

"New Haven-Milford, CT"             35300    2014       4              173.05   ( 1.26)  BEGIN 173-178 SHELF

"New Haven-Milford, CT"             35300    2015       1              175.54   ( 1.29)

"New Haven-Milford, CT"             35300    2015       2              176.04   ( 1.31)

"New Haven-Milford, CT"             35300    2015       3              175.24   ( 1.33)

"New Haven-Milford, CT"             35300    2015       4              175.95   ( 1.37)  BEGIN 2nd Year

"New Haven-Milford, CT"             35300    2016       1              175.31   ( 1.38)

"New Haven-Milford, CT"             35300    2016       2              177.17   ( 1.36)

"New Haven-Milford, CT"             35300    2016       3              178.21   ( 1.31)

"New Haven-Milford, CT"             35300    2016       4              178.24   ( 1.34)  BEGIN 3rd Year

"New Haven-Milford, CT"             35300    2017       1              177.28   ( 1.52)

"New Haven-Milford, CT"             35300    2017       2              178.03   ( 1.44)

"New Haven-Milford, CT"             35300    2017       3              178.69   ( 1.44) 

"New Haven-Milford, CT"             35300    2017       4              181.21   ( 1.47)   BEGIN 4th Year and

"New Haven-Milford, CT"             35300    2018       1              181.09   ( 1.65)    end 173-178 SHELF

"New Haven-Milford, CT"             35300    2018       2              182.76   ( 1.55)

"New Haven-Milford, CT"             35300    2018       3              184.88   ( 1.64)

"New Haven-Milford, CT"             35300    2018       4              184.98   ( 1.82)

As we move ahead or look back, we may notice the velocity with which values evolve. Here we see 12 quarters over 3 years with five points appreciation forming the Carr Value Shelf©. The next 5-point appreciation from179 -184 has been in process about half that time over 5 quarters.  The last tme we saw this demonstration of price stability with delayed appreciation was the seven-year period from 2Q1991, when this index was at 110.78 (0.75) to 4Q1998 when the index rose to 111.38 (0.72).

   

As a licensed real esate professional since 1997, I find it interesting to consider when there is a point of stability compared to a rising value environment.  It’s unique that real estate is controlled with dedicated shelter money in a leveraged transaction that may have tax benefits, so one can either pay rent or a mortgage.  It seems to me there is a definite amount of inventory in New Haven-Milford, CT that has maintained value since the 181.66 (1.22) equity point established in 1Q2011, and before   3Q2004 when the FHFA HPI was 186.34 (1.21).

Moving ahead, this is a reasonable data set to consider when weighing 30 year interest rates in 5% in a non-inflationary environment. When I wrote #HomeOwnershipBuildsWealth©  an example was presented comparing renting to buying over 30 years. This study concluded in the 31st year the tenant would be signing a new lease while the homeowner who bought the $275,000 property would probably have an asset worth over $550,000 when projecting 100% appreciation over 30 years.  I hope you have found this interesting and helpful. It seems to me that Connecticut is a superior location to New York or New Jersey for a variety of reasons including schools, density and quality of life. I look forward to working together to help you make the right move when the time is right for you. I am proud to be the foundation of your success in real estate since 1996. This work is my own reflection of FHFA public data, presented in the public interest. I am happy to explore any ideas you may have. My work and the referenced data sets are Copyright©2/26/19. All Rights Reserved. Follow me on Twitter @ ctrealdavecarr. See on on YouTube at David Carr Milford New Haven Real Estate.